Price relations between international rice markets

Agricultural and Food Economics

Table 3 Toda-Yamamoto causality tests ^d

Export prices	→ Thailand	→ Vietnam	→ Pakistan	→ U.S.	→ Argentina
Thailand →	x	28.277***	9.522	11.105*	2.322
Thailand →	x	(<0.001)	(0.146)	(0.085)	(0.888)
Vietnam →	18.652***	x	18.630***	12.127*	15.591**
Vietnam →	(0.005)	x	(0.005)	(0.059)	(0.016)
Pakistan →	13.818**	17.082***	x	9.047	9.784
Pakistan →	(0.032)	(0.009)	x	(0.171)	(0.134)
U.S. →	1.470	0.626	2.184	x	3.555
U.S. →	(0.962)	(0.996)	(0.902)	x	(0.737)
Argentina →	3.932	0.920	5.027	15.572**	x
	(0.686)	(0.989)	(0.540)	(0.016)

^d According to the Schwarz Information Criterion, the optimal number of lags is two, however six lags are required in order to ensure the error terms are not serially correlated therefore a VAR(6 + 1) model is specified. There are 154 observations. *, **, ***, signify a ten, five, and one percent level of significance for the Toda-Yamamoto causality tests.