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Table 1 Input parameters distribution used in MCS models

From: Fodder crop re-allocation sustainability and risk efficiency

Risk

Affects

Distribution

Absolut/ percentage

Impacts

Min

Most likely

Max

1st year Sale volume

Revenue

Normal

Absolut

19 667

 

21 072

Increase in sales ton

Revenue

Triangular

Percentage

1 %

2 %

5 %

Sale Price/ton

Revenue

Triangular

Absolut

90

95

100

Unit cost/ton

Cost

Triangular

Percentage

65 %

68 %

70 %

Increase in sales price

Revenue

Triangular

Percentage

1 %

3 %

5 %

Yield reduction

Revenue

Compound

Percentage

2 %

5 %

7 %

Water reduction Probi.

Yield

Risksimtable

Absolut

0.1

0.3

0.5

Water reduction/year

Yield

Binomial

Absolut

 

0.1

 

Water recharge/year

Yield

Binomial

Absolut

 

0.2

 

Discount rate

NPV

 

Percentage

 

10 %

Â