Food prices, energy and climate shocks in Uganda

Agricultural and Food Economics

Table 12 The Uganda food price model

Dependent Variable: differenced natural logarithm of the Food CPI
Independent variables	Coefficient	Standard error	p-value
Food price inertia
∆ LFOOD (t-1)	0.252^a	0.069	0.000
∆ LFOOD (t-2)	0.284^a	0.077	0.000
∆ LFOOD (t-5)	0.233^a	0.072	0.002
∆ LFOOD (t-6)	0.301^a	0.071	0.000
Nominal exchange rate
∆ LXRATE (t-1)	0.210^a	0.072	0.004
International cereal prices
∆ LCEREAL (t-5)	0.088 ^b	0.043	0.045
Real national income
∆ LGDP (t-5)	0.640^a	0.121	0.000
Agricultural output
∆ LAGRIC (t-1)	-0.168^a	0.042	0.000
Domestic fuel prices
LAGO (t-1)	0.071^b	0.035	0.042
Temperature ANOMALY
TEMPAN (t-1)	-0.003^c	0.002	0.062
Monthly dummy variables	yes
February	-0.020^a	0.006	0.001
March	0.018^a	0.006	0.004
May	-0.016^a	0.006	0.009
June	-0.025^a	0.008	0.003
July	-0.020^a	0.006	0.002
October	-0.014^b	0.005	0.015
Error correction terms
EC – Domestic food market	-0.085^a	0.017	0.000
EC – External energy market	-0.040^c	0.021	0.052
Constant	0.001	0.003	0.691
R-Squared	0.769
Adjusted R-Squared	0.655