Table 12 The Uganda food price model

Food price inertia

 ∆ LFOOD (t-1)

0.252^a

0.069

0.000

 ∆ LFOOD (t-2)

0.284^a

0.077

0.000

 ∆ LFOOD (t-5)

0.233^a

0.072

0.002

 ∆ LFOOD (t-6)

0.301^a

0.071

0.000

Nominal exchange rate

 ∆ LXRATE (t-1)

0.210^a

0.072

0.004

International cereal prices

 ∆ LCEREAL (t-5)

0.088 ^b

0.043

0.045

Real national income

 ∆ LGDP (t-5)

0.640^a

0.121

0.000

Agricultural output

 ∆ LAGRIC (t-1)

-0.168^a

0.042

0.000

Domestic fuel prices

 LAGO (t-1)

0.071^b

0.035

0.042

Temperature ANOMALY

 TEMPAN (t-1)

-0.003^c

0.002

0.062

Monthly dummy variables

yes

 February

-0.020^a

0.006

0.001

 March

0.018^a

0.006

0.004

 May

-0.016^a

0.006

0.009

 June

-0.025^a

0.008

0.003

 July

-0.020^a

0.006

0.002

 October

-0.014^b

0.005

0.015

Error correction terms

 EC – Domestic food market

-0.085^a

0.017

0.000

 EC – External energy market

-0.040^c

0.021

0.052

 Constant

0.001

0.003

0.691

 R-Squared

0.769

 Adjusted R-Squared

0.655