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Table 12 The Uganda food price model

From: Food prices, energy and climate shocks in Uganda

Dependent Variable: differenced natural logarithm of the Food CPI
Independent variables Coefficient Standard error p-value
Food price inertia    
 ∆ LFOOD (t-1) 0.252a 0.069 0.000
 ∆ LFOOD (t-2) 0.284a 0.077 0.000
 ∆ LFOOD (t-5) 0.233a 0.072 0.002
 ∆ LFOOD (t-6) 0.301a 0.071 0.000
Nominal exchange rate    
 ∆ LXRATE (t-1) 0.210a 0.072 0.004
International cereal prices    
 ∆ LCEREAL (t-5) 0.088 b 0.043 0.045
Real national income    
 ∆ LGDP (t-5) 0.640a 0.121 0.000
Agricultural output    
 ∆ LAGRIC (t-1) -0.168a 0.042 0.000
Domestic fuel prices    
 LAGO (t-1) 0.071b 0.035 0.042
Temperature ANOMALY    
 TEMPAN (t-1) -0.003c 0.002 0.062
Monthly dummy variables yes   
 February -0.020a 0.006 0.001
 March 0.018a 0.006 0.004
 May -0.016a 0.006 0.009
 June -0.025a 0.008 0.003
 July -0.020a 0.006 0.002
 October -0.014b 0.005 0.015
Error correction terms    
 EC – Domestic food market -0.085a 0.017 0.000
 EC – External energy market -0.040c 0.021 0.052
 Constant 0.001 0.003 0.691
 R-Squared 0.769   
 Adjusted R-Squared 0.655   
  1. a,b,cindicate significance at the 1, 5 and 10 % respectively