Dependent Variable: differenced natural logarithm of the Food CPI
|
---|
Independent variables
|
Coefficient
|
Standard error
|
p-value
|
---|
Food price inertia
| | | |
∆ LFOOD (t-1)
|
0.252a
|
0.069
|
0.000
|
∆ LFOOD (t-2)
|
0.284a
|
0.077
|
0.000
|
∆ LFOOD (t-5)
|
0.233a
|
0.072
|
0.002
|
∆ LFOOD (t-6)
|
0.301a
|
0.071
|
0.000
|
Nominal exchange rate
| | | |
∆ LXRATE (t-1)
|
0.210a
|
0.072
|
0.004
|
International cereal prices
| | | |
∆ LCEREAL (t-5)
|
0.088 b
|
0.043
|
0.045
|
Real national income
| | | |
∆ LGDP (t-5)
|
0.640a
|
0.121
|
0.000
|
Agricultural output
| | | |
∆ LAGRIC (t-1)
|
-0.168a
|
0.042
|
0.000
|
Domestic fuel prices
| | | |
LAGO (t-1)
|
0.071b
|
0.035
|
0.042
|
Temperature ANOMALY
| | | |
TEMPAN (t-1)
|
-0.003c
|
0.002
|
0.062
|
Monthly dummy variables
|
yes
| | |
February
|
-0.020a
|
0.006
|
0.001
|
March
|
0.018a
|
0.006
|
0.004
|
May
|
-0.016a
|
0.006
|
0.009
|
June
|
-0.025a
|
0.008
|
0.003
|
July
|
-0.020a
|
0.006
|
0.002
|
October
|
-0.014b
|
0.005
|
0.015
|
Error correction terms
| | | |
EC – Domestic food market
|
-0.085a
|
0.017
|
0.000
|
EC – External energy market
|
-0.040c
|
0.021
|
0.052
|
Constant
|
0.001
|
0.003
|
0.691
|
R-Squared
|
0.769
| | |
Adjusted R-Squared
|
0.655
| | |
-
a,b,cindicate significance at the 1, 5 and 10 % respectively