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Table 4 Estimation results for wheat

From: Short-term acreage forecasting and supply elasticities for staple food commodities in major producer countries

Variable Argentina Australia Canada China India Kazakhstan Russia Ukraine USA
Winter Spring Total
Lagged own area   −0.220 (0.144)   0.380** (0.160)   0.379*** (0.132)    −0.563*** (0.152) −0.438** (0.179)  
Own crop price 0.141 (0.172) 0.140 (0.093) 0.103** (0.050) 0.039 (0.024) 0.160 (0.107) 0.052** (0.024) 0.123* (0.067) (MSP) −0.011 (0.064) 0.172** (0.070) 0.355* (0.208) 0.286** (0.121)
Soybean price 0.023 (0.253)        0.052   −0.093 (0.528) −0.069 (0.089)
Corn price         (0.061) −0.210** (0.090) −0.348 (0.361) −0.052 (0.102)
Fertilizer price −0.345*** (0.117) 0.210** (0.073) 0.159** (0.045)      −0.003 (0.065)   0.123 (0.191) 0.021 (0.019)
Oil price   −0.263*** (0.085)       0.173** (0.067) 0.262*** (0.071)   
Diff. MSP-WSP        0.022* (0.012)     
Dummy 2000     −0.128 (0.114) −0.880 (0.517) −0.285** (0.109)      
Constant −0.007 (0.027) 0.022 (0.018) −0.026 (0.014) −0.005 (0.011) −0.039 (0.026) −0.002 (0.006) 0.005 (0.006) −0.017 (0.018) −0.023 (0.018) 0.002 (0.050) −0.017** (0.007)
N 23 23 23 20 20 22 29 20 20 20 28
Joint F-test (p value) 0.056 0.032 0.007 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.123 0.311 0.008 0.594 0.018
Adj. R² 0.214 0.301 0.335 0.034 0.020 0.262 0.050 0.061 0.465 −0.068 0.286
Why this specif.? B, C A, B A, B, C A, (B), C A, B, C A, B, C A, C A, C A, C A, B, C A, B, C
  1. All variables except dummies are in log differences. Figures in parentheses are Newey-West autocorrelation adjusted standard errors. Criteria for selection of specification (with versus without lagged area): A: adjusted R 2 higher in the chosen specification; B: BIC lower in the chosen specification; C: statistical significance of the coefficient for the autoregressive term
  2. *P < 0.10, ** P <0.05, *** P <0.01