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Table 4 Estimation results for wheat

From: Short-term acreage forecasting and supply elasticities for staple food commodities in major producer countries

Variable

Argentina

Australia

Canada

China

India

Kazakhstan

Russia

Ukraine

USA

Winter

Spring

Total

Lagged own area

 

−0.220 (0.144)

 

0.380** (0.160)

 

0.379*** (0.132)

  

−0.563***

(0.152)

−0.438** (0.179)

 

Own crop price

0.141 (0.172)

0.140 (0.093)

0.103** (0.050)

0.039 (0.024)

0.160 (0.107)

0.052** (0.024)

0.123* (0.067) (MSP)

−0.011 (0.064)

0.172** (0.070)

0.355* (0.208)

0.286** (0.121)

Soybean price

0.023 (0.253)

      

0.052

 

−0.093 (0.528)

−0.069 (0.089)

Corn price

       

(0.061)

−0.210** (0.090)

−0.348 (0.361)

−0.052 (0.102)

Fertilizer price

−0.345*** (0.117)

0.210** (0.073)

0.159** (0.045)

    

−0.003 (0.065)

 

0.123 (0.191)

0.021 (0.019)

Oil price

 

−0.263*** (0.085)

     

0.173** (0.067)

0.262*** (0.071)

  

Diff. MSP-WSP

      

0.022* (0.012)

    

Dummy 2000

   

−0.128 (0.114)

−0.880 (0.517)

−0.285** (0.109)

     

Constant

−0.007 (0.027)

0.022 (0.018)

−0.026 (0.014)

−0.005 (0.011)

−0.039 (0.026)

−0.002 (0.006)

0.005 (0.006)

−0.017 (0.018)

−0.023 (0.018)

0.002 (0.050)

−0.017** (0.007)

N

23

23

23

20

20

22

29

20

20

20

28

Joint F-test (p value)

0.056

0.032

0.007

0.001

0.001

0.000

0.123

0.311

0.008

0.594

0.018

Adj. R²

0.214

0.301

0.335

0.034

0.020

0.262

0.050

0.061

0.465

−0.068

0.286

Why this specif.?

B, C

A, B

A, B, C

A, (B), C

A, B, C

A, B, C

A, C

A, C

A, C

A, B, C

A, B, C

  1. All variables except dummies are in log differences. Figures in parentheses are Newey-West autocorrelation adjusted standard errors. Criteria for selection of specification (with versus without lagged area): A: adjusted R 2 higher in the chosen specification; B: BIC lower in the chosen specification; C: statistical significance of the coefficient for the autoregressive term
  2. *P < 0.10, ** P <0.05, *** P <0.01