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Table 5 Estimation results for soybeans

From: Short-term acreage forecasting and supply elasticities for staple food commodities in major producer countries

Variable

Argentina

Brazil

China

India

Ukraine

USA

Lagged own area

 

0.196* (0.097)

  

0.493** (0.206)

 

Own crop price

0.061 (0.059)

0.340* (0.181)

0.300** (0.124)

0.157* (0.084)

0.609 (0.546)

0.265** (0.120)

Corn price

−0.067 (0.059)

−0.203* (0.124)

−0.476*** (0.150)

−0.046 (0.170)

−0.178 (0.457)

−0.255* (0.145)

Wheat price

    

−0.993* (0.582)

 

Fertilizer price

−0.042 (0.038)

−0.086* (0.046)

  

−0.231* (0.136)

0.025 (0.023)

Dummy 1995

  

−1.504** (0.552)

   

Dummy 2006

  

2.244*** (0.704)

   

Constant

0.060*** (0.014)

0.040*** (0.013)

−0.007 (0.013)

0.039* (0.019)

0.146* (0.082)

0.005 (0.009)

N

24

23

23

17

19

28

Joint F-test (p value)

0.24

0.058

0.000

0.147

0.056

0.016

Adj. R 2

0.121

0.199

0.415

0.068

0.347

0.294

Why this specif.?

A, C

A, B, C

A, B, C

A, B, C

A, B, C

A, C

  1. All variables except dummies are in log differences. Figures in parentheses are Newey-West autocorrelation adjusted standard errors. Criteria for selection of specification (with versus without lagged area): A: adjusted R 2 higher in the chosen specification; B: BIC lower in the chosen specification; C: statistical significance of the coefficient for the autoregressive term
  2. *P < 0.10, ** P <0.05, *** P <0.01