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Table 6 Estimation results for Rice

From: Short-term acreage forecasting and supply elasticities for staple food commodities in major producer countries

Variable China India
Early Middle Late Total Kharif Rabi Total
Lagged own area   −0.532*** (0.081) 0.593*** (0.127)     
Own domestic crop price 0.302*** (0.068) 0.134* (0.074) 0.302*** (0.030) 0.230*** (0.061) 0.189 (0.126) 0.251 (0.429) 0.156 (0.092)
Rainfall      0.201*** (0.049) 0.481* (0.225) 0.161*** (0.056)
Difference MSP-WSP      0.033*** (0.009) 0.063* (0.033) 0.012* (0.006)
Dummy 2008     −0.073** (0.024)    
Constant −0.033*** (0.009) 0.017 (0.007) −0.016** (0.007) −0.011** (0.005) −0.003 (0.005) 0.004 (0.035) 0.000 (0.005)
N 13 13 14 15 16 16 23
Joint F-test (p value) 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.042 0.038
Adj. R 2 0.459 0.474 0.768 0.562 0.563 0.230 0.365
Why this specif.? A, B, C A, B, C A, B, C A, B, C A, B, C A, B, C A, B, C
  1. All variables except dummies are in log differences. Figures in parentheses are Newey-West autocorrelation adjusted standard errors. Criteria for selection of specification (with versus without lagged area): A: adjusted R 2 higher in the chosen specification; B: BIC lower in the chosen specification; C: statistical significance of the coefficient for the autoregressive term
  2. *P < 0.10, ** P <0.05, *** P <0.01