Agricultural and Food Economics

Table 6 Estimation results for Rice

From: Short-term acreage forecasting and supply elasticities for staple food commodities in major producer countries

Variable	China				India
Variable	Early	Middle	Late	Total	Kharif	Rabi	Total
Lagged own area		−0.532*** (0.081)	0.593*** (0.127)
Own domestic crop price	0.302*** (0.068)	0.134* (0.074)	0.302*** (0.030)	0.230*** (0.061)	0.189 (0.126)	0.251 (0.429)	0.156 (0.092)
Rainfall					0.201*** (0.049)	0.481* (0.225)	0.161*** (0.056)
Difference MSP-WSP					0.033*** (0.009)	0.063* (0.033)	0.012* (0.006)
Dummy 2008				−0.073** (0.024)
Constant	−0.033*** (0.009)	0.017 (0.007)	−0.016** (0.007)	−0.011** (0.005)	−0.003 (0.005)	0.004 (0.035)	0.000 (0.005)
N	13	13	14	15	16	16	23
Joint F-test (p value)	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.001	0.001	0.042	0.038
Adj. R ²	0.459	0.474	0.768	0.562	0.563	0.230	0.365
Why this specif.?	A, B, C	A, B, C	A, B, C	A, B, C	A, B, C	A, B, C	A, B, C

All variables except dummies are in log differences. Figures in parentheses are Newey-West autocorrelation adjusted standard errors. Criteria for selection of specification (with versus without lagged area): A: adjusted R ² higher in the chosen specification; B: BIC lower in the chosen specification; C: statistical significance of the coefficient for the autoregressive term
*P < 0.10, ** P <0.05, *** P <0.01

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