The impact of production shocks on maize markets in Ethiopia: implications for regional trade and food security

Agricultural and Food Economics

Table 7 Impact of a bumper harvest on the maize market

Affected components	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025
Maize yield	Tons/ha
Baseline	2.86	2.91	2.89	2.88	2.92	2.93	2.96	2.94	3.00
Scenario	3.43	2.91	2.89	2.88	2.92	2.93	2.96	2.94	3.00
Absolute change	0.57	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
% change	20%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Maize production	Thousand tons
Baseline	6890	7193	7324	7498	7759	7972	8242	8374	8755
Scenario	8262	7193	7324	7498	7759	7972	8242	8374	8755
Absolute change	1373	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
% change	20%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Domestic maize use	Thousand tons
Baseline	6858	7126	7277	7455	7692	7909	8165	8325	8661
Scenario	7849	7337	7372	7498	7711	7918	8169	8326	8662
Absolute change	991	211	95	43	19	9	4	1	0
% change	14%	3%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Ending stocks	Thousand tons
Baseline	441	509	556	599	666	728	805	854	948
Scenario	823	680	632	632	681	734	808	855	949
Absolute change	382	171	76	34	15	6	3	1	1
% change	87%	34%	14%	6%	2%	1%	0%	0%	0%
Nominal wholesale maize price	ETB/ton
Baseline	5733	5599	5845	5989	5717	5465	4855	4742	3759
Scenario	1061	4545	5347	5756	5609	5416	4833	4732	3755
Absolute change	− 4672	− 1054	− 498	− 233	− 108	− 49	− 22	− 10	− 4
% change	− 81%	− 19%	− 9%	− 4%	− 2%	− 1%	0%	0%	0%