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Table 7 Impact of a bumper harvest on the maize market

From: The impact of production shocks on maize markets in Ethiopia: implications for regional trade and food security

Affected components201720182019202020212022202320242025
Maize yieldTons/ha
 Baseline2.862.912.892.882.922.932.962.943.00
 Scenario3.432.912.892.882.922.932.962.943.00
 Absolute change0.570.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
 % change20%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
Maize productionThousand tons
 Baseline689071937324749877597972824283748755
 Scenario826271937324749877597972824283748755
 Absolute change13730.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
 % change20%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
Domestic maize useThousand tons
 Baseline685871267277745576927909816583258661
 Scenario784973377372749877117918816983268662
 Absolute change9912119543199410
 % change14%3%1%1%0%0%0%0%0%
Ending stocksThousand tons
 Baseline441509556599666728805854948
 Scenario823680632632681734808855949
 Absolute change3821717634156311
 % change87%34%14%6%2%1%0%0%0%
Nominal wholesale maize priceETB/ton
 Baseline573355995845598957175465485547423759
 Scenario106145455347575656095416483347323755
 Absolute change− 4672− 1054− 498− 233− 108− 49− 22− 10− 4
 % change− 81%− 19%− 9%− 4%− 2%− 1%0%0%0%
  1. Source: Model outcome