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Table 9 Johansen cointegration tests between regional maize markets

From: The impact of production shocks on maize markets in Ethiopia: implications for regional trade and food security

Market pairs

Sample period

Lag length

Hypothesis

λtrace

λmax

Nairobi-Addis Ababa

2006 M01–2017 M01

1

r = 0

12.26 (12.32)

12.25** (11.22)

r ≤ 1

0.01 (4.13)

0.01 (4.13)

Mombasa-Addis Ababa

2006 M01–2017 M01

1

r = 0

10.37 (12.32)

10.31 (11.22)

r ≤ 1

0.065 (4.13)

0.065 (4.13)

Juba-Addis Ababa

2011 M08–2017 M01

1

r = 0

15.71** (12.32)

15.66*** (11.22)

r ≤ 1

0.052 (4.13)

0.052 (4.129)

Juba-Addis Ababa with shift dummy

2011 M08–2017 M01

2

r = 0

22.15*** (12.32)

22.03*** (11.22)

r ≤ 1

1.53 (4.13)

1.53 (4.13)

  1. ***, ** significance levels at 1% and 5%; r is the number of cointegrating vectors; lag length is selected using Akaike Information Criteria (AIC); critical values in parenthesis; all maize prices series are converted to logarithms; South Sudan received independency in July 2011. Therefore, Juba’s maize price is from August 2011 onward