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Table 7 Average marginal effects of logistic regressions.

From: Structural change in the dairy sector: exit from farming and farm type change

Variables Exit Farm type change to suckler cow
Number of family workers: 0 (1 is base category) − 0.0102
(0.0065)
0.0003
(0.0041)
 2 − 0.0055***
(0.0007)
− 0.0003
(0.0004)
 3 − 0.0106***
(0.0008)
− 0.0005
(0.0004)
 4 − 0.0120***
(0.0009)
− 0.0008**
(0.0004)
 5 − 0.0143***
(0.0012)
− 0.0011**
(0.0005)
 > 5 − 0.0137***
(0.0013)
− 0.0010*
(0.0006)
Employees (binary) 0.0054***
(0.0008)
0.0003
(0.0003)
Apprentices (binary) − 0.0003
(0.0018)
− 0.0015***
(0.0004)
Age of the farmer (years)° 0.0019***
(0.0000)
− 0.0001***
(0.0000)
Number of dairy cows° − 0.0003***
(0.0000)
− 0.0000
(0.0000)
Stocking rate° − 0.0002
(0.0004)
− 0.0034***
(0.0003)
Organic farm (binary)°° − 0.0025***
(0.0008)
0.0013***
(0.0003)
Animal welfare housing system (BTS, binary)°° − 0.0030***
(0.0007)
0.0019***
(0.0003)
Regularly keeping animals outdoor (RAUS, binary)°° − 0.0014***
(0.0005)
0.0011***
(0.0003)
Herfindahl–Hirschman index 0.0172***
(0.0021)
0.0001
(0.0009)
Direct payments in 1000 CHF° − 0.0005***
(0.0000)
− 0.0000***
(0.0000)
Ratio of direct payments/standard output (SO) 0.0068***
(0.0015)
− 0.0043***
(0.0008)
Milk price index (2015 = 100) 0.0000
(0.0001)
0.0001***
(0.0000)
Gruyère (PDO region) 0.0034***
(0.0011)
0.0006
(0.0005)
Raclette (PDO region) 0.0055***
(0.0013)
− 0.0023***
(0.0007)
Comparison salary in 2nd and 3rd sector in 1000 CHF 0.0009***
(0.0003)
0.0007***
(0.0002)
Unemployment rate − 0.3039***
(0.0569)
− 0.0260
(0.0250)
Region (Valley region is base category)
 Hill region 0.0039**
(0.0016)
0.0035***
(0.0008)
 Mountain region 0.0096***
(0.0036)
0.0097**
(0.0039)
Agricultural policy periods (base period 2000–2001)
 2002–2006 − 0.0026
(0.0016)
− 0.0018
(0.0013)
 2007–2008 − 0.0039*
(0.0020)
− 0.0031*
(0.0016)
 2009–2013 − 0.0014
(0.0026)
− 0.0042**
(0.0018)
 2014–2018 − 0.0062***
(0.0029)
− 0.0040**
(0.0020)
Number of observations 441,281 440,995
Number of farms 29,754 29,733
Wald test statistic 9814.78 (df = 65) 1037.97 (df = 60)
Canton dummies YES YES
Production type dummies YES NO
Not included Cantons°°°   GE, SH
  1. Standard errors in parentheses are clustered on the farm level
  2. ***p < 0.01, **p < 0.05, *p < 0.1. Degrees of freedom = df
  3. °These variables are included also in squared terms in the regression analysis. In this table, the overall marginal effect of a variable is presented
  4. °°These variables additionally are considered as interaction variables with the variable direct payments; here, the overall marginal effect is presented
  5. °°°As there are no farms in the cantons Geneva (GE) and Schaffhausen (SH) which switched to specialised suckler cow farm type, farms from these cantons are not taken into account in this model