Table 2 Overview of validation indicators, real-world observations, and model results
Validation indicator | Observation | Model baseline result (Av. of ten agent populations*) |
|---|---|---|
Farm level | ||
Total organic carrot production in tons and hectares | Overall organic carrot production: 2102.5 ha, 102,418.3 tons (Destatis 2018) Wash/storage carrots: 1260 ha (On approx. 60% of this area, carrots for the fresh market and storage are produced (own data collection) 51,209 tons (approx.. 50% of total production) | Carrots for the fresh market and storage: 1300 ha, 51,023.3 tons |
Organic carrot seed use in Mio seed | 10% organic seed use and less than 1% organic seed use from organic cultivars (Herstatt 2017) | 9% organic seed use, 0.3% seed use from organic cultivars |
Farm enterprise gross margins in €/farm enterprise | Estimated gross margin at farm enterprise level is 7503.8 € for a crop rotation comprising mostly arable crops and 14,954.79 € for a crop rotation comprising mostly vegetable crops (KTBL 2016; AMI 2020; Destatis 2018) | The average yearly gross margin at farm enterprise level over all farm agents is 6457.82 € with a crop rotation comprising mostly arable crops and 11,589.45 € with a crop rotation comprising mostly vegetable crops |
Seed multiplication and breeding level | ||
Gross margin at organic carrot multiplication level in € (excluding costs for processing and packaging) | Type I: 848,025 € Type II: 5975.2 € (own data collection) | Type I: 717,065 € Type II: 1365 € |
Breeding budget for carrots in € | Type I: 5,180,480 € Type II: 300–1500 €, as only less than 5% acquired through refinancing and 30,000 € of yearly carrot breeding budget mostly acquired through donations (own data collection) | Type I: 5,121,817 € Type II: 314 € if 10% of sales revenue goes back into breeding. However, the breeding budget is mostly financed through alternative sources. This assumption of 10% seed sales going back into organic breeding results in coverage of around 1% of the current yearly breeding budget in the baseline scenario |