Short-term acreage forecasting and supply elasticities for staple food commodities in major producer countries

Haile, Mekbib G.; Brockhaus, Jan; Kalkuhl, Matthias

doi:10.1186/s40100-016-0061-x

Agricultural and Food Economics

Table 2 Unit root (ADF) test of time series variables after first differencing (H_o: unit root)

From: Short-term acreage forecasting and supply elasticities for staple food commodities in major producer countries

Corn
Variable	Corn acreage	Wheat price	Corn price	Soy price	Fertilizer price	Oil price
Argentina	−4.782		−3.689	−3.699	−5.896	−4.408
China	−3.888		−3.167	−3.629
Brazil, 1st Corn	−4.822		−5.888	−6.024	−6.178	−4.474
Brazil, 2nd Corn	−6.524		−4.800		−6.147	−4.474
India, Kharif	−4.124		−4.282	−5.012
India, Rabi	−2.993		−3.461
Mexico	−8.265		−3.247		−4.284	−5.896
Ukraine	−5.363			−3.138	−4.604	−4.707
USA	−6.458		−5.356	−5.279	−6.151	−4.474
Wheat
Variable	Wheat acreage	Wheat price	Corn price	Soy price	Fertilizer price	Oil price	Wheat diff. WS-MSP
Argentina	−7.111	−4.243		−4.515	−5.896	−4.408
Australia	−5.671	−5.299			−4.826	−4.804
Canada	−6.221	−4.044			−4.826	−4.804
China, winter w.	−2.556	−3.375
China, spring w.	−1.614	−3.268
China, all wheat	−2.078	−3.375
India	−4.653	−6.049					−5.892
Kazakhstan	−2.856	−4.728	−3.766		−4.526	−4.707
Russian Federation	−4.990	−4.348	−3.215		−4.526	−4.707
Ukraine	−6.069	−4.088	−4.189	−4.713	−4.604	−4.707
USA	−6.795	−5.072			−6.151	−4.474
Soybeans
Variable	Soy acreage	Wheat price	Corn price	Soy price	Fertilizer price	Oil price
Argentina	−3.384		−3.495	−3.525	−5.896	−4.408
China	−4.808		−3.167	−3.629
Brazil	−6.075		−6.738	--6.517	−6.151	−4.474
India	−3.476		−2.406	−5.172
Ukraine	−2.413	−3.952	−3.138	−4.137	−4.604	−4.707
USA	−3.804		−5.374	−5.543	−6.151	−4.474
Rice
Variable	Rice acreage	Rice price	Intern. rice price	Rice diff. WS-MSP	Rainfall
China, early r.	−2.646	−2.777
China, middle r.	−2.542	−2.804
China, late rice	−2.338	−2.020
China, all rice	−2.519	−2.372	−2.543
India, all rice	−4.142	−5. 317		−4.239	−5.610
India, Kharif	−4.030	−4.299		−3.242	−4.448
India, Rabi	−2.370	−3.983		−3.224	−4.448

Critical values are −3.750, −3.000, and −2.630 at the 1, 5, and 10 % significance levels (Fuller 1976 p. 373). The results are ADF tests with one lag and a constant for the variables. The Indian rice and wheat prices refer to the MSP

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