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Table 3 Estimation results for corn

From: Short-term acreage forecasting and supply elasticities for staple food commodities in major producer countries

Variable

Argentina

Brazil

China

India

Mexico

Ukraine

USA

1st corn

2nd corn

Kharif

Rabi

Lagged own area

 

−0.588*** (0.196)

   

−0.579*** (0.113)

−0.637*** (0.150)

0.655*** (0.153)

−0.276* (0.150)

Own crop price

0.382** (0.164)

0.228* (0.123)

0.574*** (0.138)

0.164*** (0.037)

0.124** (0.043)

0.377*** (0.114)

0.140* (0.077)

−0.088 (0.328)

0.488*** (0.101)

Soybean price

−0.372** (0.166)

−0.333* (0.197)

 

−0.085** (0.036)

−0.048 (0.034)

   

−0.274** (0.101)

Fertilizer price

 

0.206*** (0.065)

−0.250*** (0.083)

   

−0.086** (0.039)

−0.370* (0.207)

−0.035 (0.027)

Oil price

−0.108 (0.113)

      

0.882* (0.486)

0.021 (0.019) 0.035

Dummy 1995

   

0.454*** (0.158)

    

(0.051)

Dummy 2006

   

−0.78*** (0.173)

     

Constant

0.050* (0.024)

−0.055*** (0.016)

0.085*** (0.021)

0.023** (0.009)

0.013 (0.008)

0.092*** (0.021)

−0.004 (0.015)

0.066 (0.084)

0.000 (0.009)

N

24

22

21

23

16

15

22

20

28

Joint F-test (p value)

0.003

0.019

0.002

0.000

0.029

0.000

0.002

0.040

0.000

Adj. R 2

0.166

0.388

0.342

0.130

0.186

0.221

0.484

0.326

0.557

Why this specif.?

A, C

A, C

A, B, C

A, B, C

A, B, C

A, C

A, C

A, B, C

A, C

  1. All variables except dummies are in log differences. Figures in parentheses are Newey-West autocorrelation adjusted standard errors. Criteria for selection of specification (with versus without lagged area): A: adjusted R 2 higher in the chosen specification; B: BIC lower in the chosen specification; C: statistical significance of the coefficient for the autoregressive term
  2. *P < 0.10, **P < 0.05, ***P < 0.01