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Table 3 Estimation results for corn

From: Short-term acreage forecasting and supply elasticities for staple food commodities in major producer countries

Variable Argentina Brazil China India Mexico Ukraine USA
1st corn 2nd corn Kharif Rabi
Lagged own area   −0.588*** (0.196)     −0.579*** (0.113) −0.637*** (0.150) 0.655*** (0.153) −0.276* (0.150)
Own crop price 0.382** (0.164) 0.228* (0.123) 0.574*** (0.138) 0.164*** (0.037) 0.124** (0.043) 0.377*** (0.114) 0.140* (0.077) −0.088 (0.328) 0.488*** (0.101)
Soybean price −0.372** (0.166) −0.333* (0.197)   −0.085** (0.036) −0.048 (0.034)     −0.274** (0.101)
Fertilizer price   0.206*** (0.065) −0.250*** (0.083)     −0.086** (0.039) −0.370* (0.207) −0.035 (0.027)
Oil price −0.108 (0.113)        0.882* (0.486) 0.021 (0.019) 0.035
Dummy 1995     0.454*** (0.158)      (0.051)
Dummy 2006     −0.78*** (0.173)      
Constant 0.050* (0.024) −0.055*** (0.016) 0.085*** (0.021) 0.023** (0.009) 0.013 (0.008) 0.092*** (0.021) −0.004 (0.015) 0.066 (0.084) 0.000 (0.009)
N 24 22 21 23 16 15 22 20 28
Joint F-test (p value) 0.003 0.019 0.002 0.000 0.029 0.000 0.002 0.040 0.000
Adj. R 2 0.166 0.388 0.342 0.130 0.186 0.221 0.484 0.326 0.557
Why this specif.? A, C A, C A, B, C A, B, C A, B, C A, C A, C A, B, C A, C
  1. All variables except dummies are in log differences. Figures in parentheses are Newey-West autocorrelation adjusted standard errors. Criteria for selection of specification (with versus without lagged area): A: adjusted R 2 higher in the chosen specification; B: BIC lower in the chosen specification; C: statistical significance of the coefficient for the autoregressive term
  2. *P < 0.10, **P < 0.05, ***P < 0.01