Agricultural and Food Economics

Table 6 Root mean of squared error (RMSE) of VAR forecasts compared with other prediction methods

From: Argentine government policies: impacts on the beef sector

	Method				% Improvement
	Producer price
Horizon	Mean	RW	AR	VAR	Mean	RW	AR
3	2.57	1.02	2.55	1.37	47	−34	46
6	2.65	1.39	2.63	1.97	26	−42	25
9	2.73	1.84	2.74	2.18	20	−19	20
12	2.81	2.21	2.85	2.35	16	−6	18
	Beef production
3	34,128.54	24,523.4	31,307.19	24,693.97	28	−1	21
6	33,671.6	30,892.22	31,041.01	34,135.24	−1	−10	10
9	33,508.45	31,404.72	30,529.84	34,552.06	−3	−10	−13
12	33,811.04	33,434.45	30,769.51	32,812.82	3	2	−7
	Per-capita consumption
3	6.64	5.05	6.22	4.46	33	12	28
6	6.47	5.52	6.11	6.13	5	−11	0
9	6.46	6.04	6.1	6.72	−4	−11	−10
12	6.43	7.04	6.13	7.18	−12	−2	−17
	Beef exports
3	13,486.92	9729.23	12,921.88	10,950.07	19	−13	15
6	13,734.65	11,689.7	13,195.46	14,059.92	−2	−20	−7
9	14,412.9	13,930.08	13,899.11	14,090.93	2	−1	−1
12	14,915.21	14,508.85	14,392.13	12,692.69	15	13	12
	Retail beef price
3	11.21	4.54	11.04	4.45	60	2	60
6	11.4	5.94	11.24	7.32	36	−23	35
9	11.73	6.23	11.57	8.82	25	−42	24
12	12.14	7.63	12.05	9.06	25	−19	25

Note: RMSE of simulated out-of-sample forecasts

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