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Table 8 Impact of a drought

From: The impact of production shocks on maize markets in Ethiopia: implications for regional trade and food security

Affected components201720182019202020212022202320242025
Area harvestedThousand hectare
 Baseline240824722536260226612725278928502922
 Scenario236624722536260226612725278928502922
 Absolute change− 420.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
 % change− 2%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
Maize yieldTons/Ha
 Baseline2.862.912.892.882.922.932.962.943.00
 Scenario2.482.912.892.882.922.932.962.943.00
 Absolute change− 0.380.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
 % change− 13%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
Maize productionThousand tons
 Baseline689071937324749877597972824283748755
 Scenario587171937324749877597972824283748755
 Absolute change− 10190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
 % change− 15%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
Domestic maize useThousand tons
 Baseline685871267277745576927909816583258661
 Scenario612369697206742476787903816283248660
 Absolute change− 735− 157− 70− 31− 14− 6− 3− 1− 1
 % change− 11%− 2%− 1%0%0%0%0%0%0%
Ending stocksThousand tons
 Baseline441509556599666728805854948
 Scenario157382500574655723803853948
 Absolute change− 284− 127− 56− 25− 11− 5− 2− 10
 % change− 64%− 25%− 10%− 4%− 2%− 1%0%0%0%
Nominal wholesale maize priceETB/ton
 Baseline573355995845598957175465485547423759
 Scenario920163826215616257975502487247503762
 Absolute change346978337017380371783
 % change61%14%6%3%1%1%0%0%0%
  1. Source: Model outcome