The impact of production shocks on maize markets in Ethiopia: implications for regional trade and food security

Agricultural and Food Economics

Table 8 Impact of a drought

Affected components	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025
Area harvested	Thousand hectare
Baseline	2408	2472	2536	2602	2661	2725	2789	2850	2922
Scenario	2366	2472	2536	2602	2661	2725	2789	2850	2922
Absolute change	− 42	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
% change	− 2%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Maize yield	Tons/Ha
Baseline	2.86	2.91	2.89	2.88	2.92	2.93	2.96	2.94	3.00
Scenario	2.48	2.91	2.89	2.88	2.92	2.93	2.96	2.94	3.00
Absolute change	− 0.38	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
% change	− 13%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Maize production	Thousand tons
Baseline	6890	7193	7324	7498	7759	7972	8242	8374	8755
Scenario	5871	7193	7324	7498	7759	7972	8242	8374	8755
Absolute change	− 1019	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
% change	− 15%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Domestic maize use	Thousand tons
Baseline	6858	7126	7277	7455	7692	7909	8165	8325	8661
Scenario	6123	6969	7206	7424	7678	7903	8162	8324	8660
Absolute change	− 735	− 157	− 70	− 31	− 14	− 6	− 3	− 1	− 1
% change	− 11%	− 2%	− 1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Ending stocks	Thousand tons
Baseline	441	509	556	599	666	728	805	854	948
Scenario	157	382	500	574	655	723	803	853	948
Absolute change	− 284	− 127	− 56	− 25	− 11	− 5	− 2	− 1	0
% change	− 64%	− 25%	− 10%	− 4%	− 2%	− 1%	0%	0%	0%
Nominal wholesale maize price	ETB/ton
Baseline	5733	5599	5845	5989	5717	5465	4855	4742	3759
Scenario	9201	6382	6215	6162	5797	5502	4872	4750	3762
Absolute change	3469	783	370	173	80	37	17	8	3
% change	61%	14%	6%	3%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%