# Table 2 Results of the vector autoregression models for importers and producers

Estimated parameter, the explanatory variable Product°°°
k = Beef k = Pork k = Poultry
Dependent variable: ∆It in USD
$$\mu_{k}^{I}$$ 0.002 (0.005) 0.003 (0.01) 0.001 (0.01)
$$\rho_{l = 1,k}^{I}$$, lag of ∆It 0.03 (0.11) 0.12 (0.10)  − 0.13(0.11)
$$\rho_{l = 2,k}^{I}$$, lag of ∆It    − 0.05 (0.10)
$$\theta_{j = 1,k}^{I}$$, ∆PProduct,t−1 × 1/ERt−1 0.16 (0.07) * 0.027 (0.10) 0.28 (0.12) *
$$\theta_{j = 2,k}^{I}$$, ∆PProduct,t−2 × 1/ERt−2   0.46 (0.10) ***
$$\varphi_{n = 1, j = 1}^{I}$$, Embargo  − 0.001 (0.02)  − 0.014 (0.05)  − 0.04 (0.04)
$$\varphi_{n = 1, j = 2}^{I}$$, Embargo    − 0.006 (0.05)
$$\varphi_{n = 2, j = 1}^{I}$$, Pork ban 0.012 (0.01) 0.07 (0.05) 0.04 (0.03)
$$\varphi_{n = 2, j = 2}^{I}$$, Pork ban    − 0.05 (0.05)
$$\varphi_{n = 3, j = 1}^{I}$$, Exchange rate liberalisation  − 0.017 (0.02)  − 0.03 (0.06) 0.005 (0.04)
$$\varphi_{n = 3, j = 2}^{I}$$, Exchange rate liberalisation   0.03 (0.05)
Portmanteau test (p value) 1 0.76 1
ARCH test (p value) 1 1 1
Normality test (p value)° 0 0 0
Stability test passed passed passed
Granger test (p value)°° 0.46 0.46 0
Number of observations 84 84 84
p value for F-test (model significance)°°° 0.14 (no) 0 (yes) 0.07 (yes)
Dependent variable: ∆Pt in RUB
$$\mu_{k}^{P}$$ 0.003 (0.004)  − 0.001 (0.005)  − 0.001 (0.004)
$$\rho_{l = 1,k}^{P}$$, ∆Pt−1  − 0.14 (0.12) 0.27 (0.1) * 0.02 (0.1)
$$\rho_{l = 2,k}^{P}$$, ∆Pt−2 0.04 (0.12)
$$\theta_{j = 1, k}^{P}$$, ∆IProduct,t−1 × ERt−1  − 0.001 (0.06) 0.07 (0.05) 0.05 (0.04)
$$\theta_{j = 2, k}^{P}$$, ∆IProduct,t−2 × ERt−2 0.01 (0.05)
$$\gamma_{j = 1,k}^{P}$$, ∆EProduct,t−1 × ERt−1 0.012 (0.02) 0.007 (0.008) 0.007 (0.02)
$$\gamma_{j = 2,k}^{P}$$, ∆EProduct,t−2 × ERt−2 0.002 (0.02)
$$\varphi_{n = 1, j = 1}^{P}$$, Embargo 0.05 (0.03).  − 0.082 (0.02) ***  − 0.04 (0.02) *
$$\varphi_{n = 1, j = 2}^{P}$$, Embargo  − 0.07 (0.03) *
$$\varphi_{n = 2, j = 1}^{P}$$, Pork Ban 0.003 (0.03) 0.04 (0.01) ** 0.04 (0.01) ***
$$\varphi_{n = 2, j = 2}^{P}$$, Pork Ban 0.002 (0.03)
$$\varphi_{n = 3, j = 1}^{P}$$, Exchange rate liberalisation 0.06 (0.03). 0.037 (0.02) .  − 0.006 (0.01)
$$\varphi_{n = 3, j = 2}^{P}$$, Exchange rate liberalisation  − 0.05 (0.03).
Portmanteau test (p value) 1 0.73 1
ARCH test (p value) 1 1 1
Normality test (p value)° 0 0 0
Stability test passed passed passed
Granger test (p value)°° 0.03 0.26 0.43
Observations (number) 84 84 84