Table 1 Seed system context and model implementation
Outcome variable | Influencing factors | Nature of influence | Model implementation |
|---|---|---|---|
Production of organic seed | Demand | Currently, demand for organic seed is low. This hampers its production | Expectations on seed demand are endogenously adapted each year by seed producers based on past sales |
Ease of production | For some crops, organic seed production is technically challenging, thus holding it back. For some cultivars, it is not possible to produce organic seed from these crops | Seed production activities are modelled in detail, as well as with an upper limit on production increase | |
Cost of production | Organic seed production is in almost all cases more expensive than nonorganic production. This results in a higher price for organic seed and lower demand | Costs and revenues of seed production activities are modelled | |
Policy framework | Derogations allowing for the use of NCT seed hampers organic seed production | The current situation is reflected in the baseline while changing regulations are modelled in scenarios | |
Use of organic seed | The availability of organic seed | There is currently only a limited range and amount of organic seed available | The baseline is calibrated according to the current use of organic seed. This is the starting point in scenarios aiming at a production increase. An upper limit reflecting a realistic growth rate ensures a realistic increase |
Quality of seed | In some cases, organic seed is of lower quality (e.g. regarding the germination rate). This does not make it a farmer’s first choice | Crop production activities are modelled at an input and output level disaggregated to seed requirement and price at the hectare level | |
Suitability of cultivars | Only a limited number of cultivars are available as organic seed. The cultivars are sometimes not the preferred choice of the organic farmer | Individual cultivars are not modelled but the average characteristics of cultivars available in NCT seed, organic seed, or organic cultivarsa | |
Policy framework | See above | See above | |
Attitudes and expectations from downstream value chain actors | Currently, there is limited awareness and emphasis on the use of a specific kind of seed. This does not induce the farmer to use organic seed | The behaviour of downstream value chain agents are not endogenously modelled. Scenarios that include a higher farm gate price are modelled exogenously | |
Cost of seed | Organic seed is generally more expensive for farmers than NCT seed. This is a major constraint for farmers to switch to organic seed | Crop production activities are modelled in detail, disaggregated to seed requirement and price at hectare level | |
Attitudes and expectations from organic farmers | Attitudes about the importance and need for organic seed varies among organic farmers and can be strong (de)motivators | An individual excess willingness to pay for organic seed per farmer was estimated and included as an exogenous parameter in the model |