Table 4 Summary of the results using key outcome variables
(1) Scenarios | (2) % Δ GM/Farm Enterp | (3) % Δ GM/seed multipl. org. + NCT seed | (4) % Δ GM/seed multipl. org. cultivars | (5) % Δ breeding budget (org., NCT, CT seed) | (6) % Δ breeding budget org. cultivars | (7) Costs of intervention in model period in € | (8) Predicted total costs of intervention in € | (9) % marketed organic seed of the total market | (10) % marketed seed of org. cultivars of total market | (11) Diffusion of organic seed to adopter group | (12) Cost-effectiveness (Ha planted with organic seed per €) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
(2) [Derog] (Scen. 2) | − 11 | − 3.6 | 515 | 0.60 | 401 | n/a | n/a | 23.70 | 1.88 | n/a | n/a |
(3) [HgermR] (Scen. 3) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | n/a | n/a | 0 | 0 | n/a | n/a |
(4) [Derog, HgermR] (Scen. 4) | − 9 | 8 | 582 | 0.58 | 501 | n/a | n/a | 37.86 | 2.38 | n/a | n/a |
(5) [Derog, HgermR, SuffS] (Scen. 5) | − 3 | 36 | 373 | 4.3 | 937 | n/a | n/a | 81.25 | 1.51 | n/a | n/a |
(6) [Subs] (500 €/ha) (Scen. 6) | 0.08 | − 0.4 | 1246 | 0.36 | 1293 | 164,792 | 690,000 | 20.62 | 3.13 | Laggards | 0.0020 |
(7) [Subs] (150 €/ha) (Scen. 6) | 0.00 | − 0.3 | 950 | 0.35 | 1095 | 23,015 | 103,500 | 19.58 | 2.54 | Early Majority | 0.0067 |
(8) [Prce] (10 €/ton org. carrots) (Scen. 7) | 0.03 | − 0.1 | 1078 | 0.58 | 1160 | 162,009 | 690,000 | 20.35 | 2.99 | Laggards | 0.0020 |
(9) [Prce] (5 €/ton org. carrots) (Scen. 7) | 0.00 | 0.0 | 941 | 0.36 | 1098 | 22,692 | 103,500 | 19.22 | 2.59 | Early Majority | 0.0067 |
(10) [HgermR, Subs (500 €/ha)] (Scen. 8) | 0.11 | 8 | 1538 | 0.54 | 1795 | 273,980 | 690,000 | 34.36 | 6.4 | Laggards | 0.0020 |
(11) [HgermR, Prce (10 €/ton org. carrots),] (Scen. 9) | 0.02 | 8 | 1507 | 0.55 | 1794 | 270,537 | 690,000 | 34.09 | 5.09 | Laggards | n/a |
(12) [HgermR, Subs (500 €/ha), SuffS] (Scen. 10) | 0.11 | 36 | 1338 | 4.3 | 2093 | 700,000 | 690,000 | 73.03 | 5.99 | Laggards | 0.0020 |
(13) [HgermR, Subs (150 €/ha), Prce (7 €/ton), SuffS] (Scen. 11) | 0.01 | 35.5 | 1339 | 4.3 | 2102 | 700,000 | 690,000 | 78.54 | 7.89 | Laggards | 0.0020 |